The electric car “hangover” is coming—did Toyota’s cautious strategy just prove right?

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The electric car market might be speeding ahead, but not everyone in the auto industry is convinced it’s a one-way street. Among the cautious is Toyota, which, after years of treading carefully, is now watching its strategy being vindicated by recent data. Are we about to face the electric car “hangover”—and did Toyota just get it right?

Toyota’s Careful Approach

While the rest of the industry seemed to be putting all its chips on pure electric vehicles, Toyota kept its cards close to its chest. As former president Akio Toyoda once said,

“There’s no single solution for cutting carbon emissions.”

With this in mind, Toyota has long favored a mix of technologies: hybrids, EVs, and other low-emission alternatives, never betting it all on full electric.

Battery Woes and Market Slowdowns

Toyota has argued that batteries are still too expensive and heavy, not to mention that their range remains a limiting factor in certain situations. And now, as the numbers roll in, it seems the company’s doubts make sense. In 2022, global electric car sales hit 10 million, with forecasts suggesting about 14 million for 2023. But dark clouds are gathering—Volkswagen has seen a 50% plunge in EV orders across Europe, Ford has scaled back its own expectations, and Renault has sold less than half the electrified vehicles it had aimed for.

Government Incentives: The Real Driving Force?

Much of the current demand for electric vehicles seems to be riding on the back of generous government incentives. In Norway, where subsidies are generous, electric cars made up 84.3% of new registrations. But in Italy and Spain, where support is far more modest, the figures drop dramatically to 3.9% and 5.2% respectively. Germany recently ended many incentives, and the result? EV sales fell a whopping 28.6%.

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These numbers tell a clear story: without government perks, most drivers still stick with their good old gasoline vehicles. The only real outlier is Tesla—which, with its aggressive pricing, has brought the Model 3 down below €43,000 (about $46,500) in Europe, and is eyeing a future entry-level “Model 2” around €25,000 (roughly $27,000). Now that’s what you call competitive spirit.

Diversify or Bust?

In this landscape, Toyota’s strategy—not putting all its eggs in the electric basket, but instead betting on a whole range of low-emission technologies—now looks wiser than ever. If the electric car market really does suffer a hangover, those who have diversified their lineup will have a lot more room to adapt and stay in the game.

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